This project examines how Wisconsin’s dairy industry is increasingly reliant on a small number of export markets and how that dependence affects price stability for farmers. Dairy exports—especially products like cheese and whey—play a major role in supporting milk prices, but when those exports are concentrated in just a few countries, any change in demand or trade conditions can quickly impact prices and farm income. The study focuses on understanding how this concentration contributes to price volatility, making it harder for farmers and businesses to plan, invest, and manage financial risk.

To address this issue, the project combines data analysis and economic modeling to evaluate how changes in global demand, trade policies, or market disruptions affect prices and farm profitability. By simulating different scenarios, the research will identify situations where export concentration creates the most risk, including periods of low profit margins. The results are intended to help dairy farmers, processors, lenders, and policymakers make more informed decisions, improve risk management strategies, and strengthen the long-term resilience of Wisconsin’s dairy industry.