Assessing the impact of states and national climate policies and food behavioral changes on the US dairy industry

    PI: Min Chen

    Chen is an assistant professor of forest and wildlife ecology at UW–Madison. His research interests include terrestrial ecosystem/land surface modeling, remote sensing theory and applications, and human-Earth system interactions.

    Postdoc (pictured above): Hamid Dashti is a postdoctoral research associate in the Global Change Research Lab in the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology at UW–Madison. He specializes in ecosystem modeling, integrated assessment models, remote sensing, high-performance computing, Python, open-source Software and big data analytics.

    Wisconsin is the second-largest dairy producer in the US, but the industry is facing challenges, including climate change and changes in dietary patterns. US climate policies, including carbon pricing, are complex due to variations between states and the federal government. While the US aims for zero emissions by 2050, different states may have differing policies. Wisconsin lacks carbon pricing, but the Wisconsin Climate Action Report and the Senate Bill 70 on WI’s budget, call for a thorough analysis of carbon pricing within the state. Additionally, there is a societal shift towards plant-based diets, partly to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The consequences of dietary shifts on the dairy industry depend on the policies implemented by governments. Therefore, this study aims to explore two key questions: 1) How does state-level carbon pricing heterogeneity compared to national uniform carbon pricing impact the dairy industry? 2) How do dietary changes affect dairy production considering various climate policies? The study utilizes a subnational version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), specifically the GCAM-USA model to address the questions. Multiple scenarios will be designed to project the combined impact of policies and dietary patterns on the dairy industry from 2020 to 2050. The results will provide insights into the alternative future of the dairy industry and the mechanisms driving changes at both the national and state levels, aiding institutional and individual climate mitigation plans, decision-making, and public advocacy for sustainable policies.

    Chuck Nicholson